2026.02.12
Executive Summary Dismissing 2026’s KOSPI rally as ’lucky’ misses something important. The core is two axes. First, earnings (performance) forecasts jumped upward, causing index levels themselves to be re-rated. KOSPI closed 2025 at 4,214.17 on December 30, then rose to 5,224.36 on January 30, 2026, marking approximately +24% (closing price basis). Second, this rally is closer to results of overheating→emergency braking→reacceleration repeated by engine rooms centered on market cap leaders (especially semiconductor top two) rather than a picture of “the whole market uniformly improving.”
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Executive Summary The question posed by Lee Ik-ju in one of his Jigubon Library videos can be summarized in one sentence: “How exactly did nations caught between great powers manage to survive?” To find the answer, we shouldn’t look at “nations that spoke loudly with pride” but rather at “nations that secured tangible benefits, however small, while enduring for the long haul.” This is because diplomacy is not a contest of self-respect but a practice of survival management.
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Executive Summary Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis is not “a technique to look at more charts,” but a methodology that accepts the fact that markets are inherently designed to move simultaneously at multiple speeds (time scales). Markets mix long-term capital with short-term capital, and the same news is interpreted by some as lasting months while others treat it as seconds-long. When stubbornly sticking to a single timeframe, optical illusions easily arise where ’noise is mistaken for signal,’ and actual losses tend to manifest as frequent stop-losses, accumulated transaction costs, and occasionally large tail losses. The core of MTF lies in ‘role separation’ where higher timeframes (HTF) handle context while lower timeframes (LTF) handle triggers (execution signals). This separation is particularly powerful in risk management (stops, targets, position sizing), but when misused, side effects like confirmation bias, over-analysis, and entry delays also emerge. The conclusion is simple: MTF is not a panacea but a structure that reduces errors when necessary conditions are met, and without those conditions, it can merely increase complexity.
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